Monday, November 25, 2013

OREX, CAMT, CLDX and GLUU added to NASDAQ Active Stock Watch List at EPR

New York, NY - (ACCESSWIRE) - 11/25/2013 - Equity Profile Report initiates its NASDAQ Active Stock Watch List adding Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX - News), Camtek Ltd. (NASDAQ:CAMT - News), Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLDX - News), and Glu Mobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:GLUU - News)

Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX - News) a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the development of pharmaceutical product candidates for the treatment of obesity is currently up (+11.36%) on 4,634,564 shares traded after Orexigen Announced Successful Interim Analysis of Contrave Light Study. Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX - News) is currently up (+44.71%) from its recent 52-week low, which has prompted Equity Profile Report to add the stock to their NASDAQ Active Stock Watch List and Investor Poll.

To find out what other Investors are saying about Orexigen Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:OREX - News)

Click Here: http://www.equityprofilereport.com/Survey.aspx?stock=OREX&SubId=AW

Camtek Ltd. (NASDAQ:CAMT - News) a company that together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, and markets automatic optical inspection systems and related products is currently up (+71.32%) on 6,999,845 shares traded after Camtek Announced to Present at LD MICRO's 6th Annual Conference On Wednesday, December 4, 2013. Camtek Ltd. (NASDAQ:CAMT - News) is currently up (+303.05%) from its recent 52-week low, which has prompted Equity Profile Report to add the stock to their NASDAQ Active Stock Watch List and Investor Poll.

To find out what other Investors are saying about Camtek Ltd. (NASDAQ:CAMT - News)

Click Here: http://www.equityprofilereport.com/Survey.aspx?stock=CAMT&SubId=AW

Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLDX - News) a biopharmaceutical company that focuses on the development, manufacture, and commercialization of novel therapeutics for human health care primarily in the United States is currently down (-8.80%) on 1,820,427 shares traded after CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC. Filed SEC form 8-K, Regulation FD Disclosure, Financial Statements and Exhibits. Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLDX - News) is currently down (-34.5%) from its recent 52-week high, which has prompted Equity Profile Report to add the stock to their NASDAQ Active Stock Watch List and Investor Poll.

To find out what other Investors are saying about Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLDX - News)

Click Here: http://www.equityprofilereport.com/Survey.aspx?stock=CLDX&SubId=AW

Glu Mobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:GLUU - News) a company that develops and publishes a portfolio of action/adventure and casual games for the users of smartphones and tablet devices is currently up (+3.85%) on 1,184,404 shares traded. Glu Mobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:GLUU - News) is currently up (+92%) from its recent 52-week low which has prompted Equity Profile Report to add the stock to their NASDAQ Active Stock Watch List and Investor Poll.

To find out what other Investors are saying about Glu Mobile, Inc. (NASDAQ:GLUU - News)

Click Here: http://www.equityprofilereport.com/Survey.aspx?stock=GLUU&SubId=AW

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Monday, September 30, 2013

Container Store Files for IPO

The Container Store Group, Inc. has joined the waves of well known companies looking to come public in an initial public offering. Formal terms have not been set other than that the IPO will be for up to $200 million in common stock. The shares are now scheduled to trade under the stock ticker "TCS" on the New York Stock Exchange.

We would point out that a large IPO syndicate has been hired here. The underwriters are listed as J.P. Morgan, Barclays, Credit Suisse, Morgan Stanley, BofA Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo Securities, Jefferies, and Guggenheim Securities.

The Container Store is frequented by thousands and thousands of consumers each day to help with household and office organizational products. By our take (and the company's take) it is the leading specialty retailer of storage and organization products in the United States.

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Sales were over $700 million in fiscal 2012. Its TCS unit is made up of retail stores, its website and its call center, and the segment was 87% of 2012 sales. Its Elfa segment in Sweden designs and makes customized component-based shelving and drawer systems which are sold in 30 countries.

As of September 1, 2013, the Container Store operated 61 stores with an average size of approximately 19,000 selling square feet each. It is only located in twenty-two states and the District of Columbia, so there is more than enough room for it to expand ahead.

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Twitter IPO Unlikely as Government Shutdown Slows SEC

Rumors spread that Twitter would file its initial public offering (IPO) papers with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) this week. The likelihood of that has died as the federal government prepares to shut down. Companies may still be able to file documents with the SEC, but the agency will not approve or deny them for the time being. Twitter's management and bankers are too smart to file when the government is in chaos. The focus on the IPO application and what it means to Wall Street will be undermined.

The Twitter delay shows the extent to which planned publicity around government relations can dissolve when the spotlight turns from companies that need to do federal business to the federal government itself. Better to hang on to exciting news until the excitement can move back in Twitter's favor.

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Imagine if Facebook Inc. (FB) had elected to filed its IPO documents with the SEC during a lull, when the agency's doors were barely open. The S-1 may not have been posted at the SEC.gov website at all. The clerks and other minions who do this kind of work will be at home, hoping that the government will be reopened with legislation that gives them back pay. Otherwise, these workers may be left with bills to pay and no money with which to pay them. It is another part of the fallout that could hurt gross domestic product (GDP) improvement, if the Congress and White House cannot reach a compromise soon.

ALSO READ: Ten Brands That Will Disappear in 2014

Twitter management and bankers are unlikely to be concerned with the delay. Based on almost any information regarding the cash on Twitter's balance sheet, it will be months before it needs money for operations. A huge expansion of its business or any mergers or acquisitions will have to be put off. However, this is not likely to affect the social network's long-term future.

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Finally, Twitter has been warned, based on when the Facebook IPO came to market, well after it filed its first documents with the SEC, that the longer bankers, chief financial officers and exchanges have, the better prepared they will be for the first day of trading. That observation may be nothing more than amusing, but there is a tiny truth in it.

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Twitter will not file its IPO documents with the SEC this week, and not until the SEC has been open long enough to get its house back in order. There is no reason for Twitter to start the process in the middle of a catastrophe.

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Top Analyst Upgrades and Downgrades: CIT, Intel, Nike, J.C.Penney and More

As a government shutdown and debt ceiling debate rage on as new (or repetitive) market risks, investors have to decide which stocks to buy and which to sell or avoid. 24/7 Wall St. reviews dozens of research reports from Wall Street analysts each morning to look for the new research ideas. Some are stocks to buy and some are stocks to sell. Here are Monday's top analyst upgrades, downgrades and initiations seen from Wall Street research firms.

Achillion Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ACHN) is getting destroyed on poor hep-C test results, and shares are down about 50%. Bank of America Merrill Lynch downgraded it to Underperform from Buy after the news.

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AMC Networks Inc. (AMCX) was listed in Barron's as having yet another 20% upside this year and as a possible media takeover target.

CIT Group Inc. (CIT) was raised to Buy from Neutral and the price target was raised to $58 from $52 (versus a $48.47 close) at Janney Capital.

Colgate-Palmolive Co. (CL) was raised to Overweight from Equal Weight and the price target is now $68 (versus a $59.93 close) at Morgan Stanley.

Intel Corp. (INTC) was maintained as Neutral but the estimates were lowered due to weak back to school and lack of a holiday cheer, according to Sterna Agee. The price target is $20, versus a $22.98 close.

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International Paper Company (IP) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

J. C. Penney Co. Inc. (JCP) was downgraded to Hold from Buy at Maxim Group.

Marathon Oil Corp. (MRO) was raised to Buy from Hold with a $42 price target (versus a $34.90 close) at Argus.

Marketo Inc. (MKTO) was reinstated as Outperform with a $38 price target (versus a $31.49 close) at Credit Suisse.

Nike Inc. (NKE) was started as Neutral at UBS.

RealPage Inc. (RP) was downgraded to Underperform from Neutral with a $20 price target (versus a $23.40 close) at Credit Suisse.

Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDS-A) was raised to Buy from Sell with a $71 price target (versus a $65.88 close) at Goldman Sachs.

Shire PLC (SHPG) was raised to Overweight from Neutral at J.P. Morgan.

Telecom Italia SpA (TI) was raised to Neutral from Underperform at J.P. Morgan.

Xilinx Inc. (XLNX) was raised to Outperform from Sector Perform with a $55 price target (versus $a 46.54 close) at Pacific Crest.

Last week we featureed top stocks to buy trading under $10 as a Wall Street analyst montage. We now have more of those under $10 stock picks.

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Introduction to Margin Accounts

Do you have a margin account with your broker? If so, did you know that the shares you have purchased may be lent out to other parties without your knowledge or granted permission? When opening a margin account, you are essentially giving permission to the brokerage firm to lend out the securities in your account even if you don't realize it.

When your shares are lent out you can lose your voting rights; but on the positive side, lending out your shares can have great benefits. In this article, we will look at what your broker could be doing with your shares as well as potential ways that you could benefit.

How Margin Accounts Work
A margin account is a way to leverage the capital and securities you own to purchase additional investments without having to invest any additional capital. You simply borrow from your broker to buy more securities. The broker will charge you interest on the borrowed money and use all the securities (those already in your margin account and the ones you just bought) as collateral.

Note that the risk of trading on margin is greater than trading in a cash account because you can, in theory, lose more money than you started with in your account.

What Happens to the Securities in Your Margin Account?
The securities in your margin account may be lent out to another party, or used as collateral by the brokerage firm at any time without notice or compensation to you, when there is a debt balance (or negative balance) on the account where you have accessed the margin funds. If the account is in a credit state, where you haven't used the margin funds, the shares can't be lent out.

The borrowers of stocks held in margin accounts are generally active traders, such as hedge funds, who either are trying to short a stock or need to cover a stock loan that has been called in. Investment firms that need an underlying instrument for a derivatives contract might borrow your margined stocks from your broker. The brokerage firm may also pledge the securities as loan collateral.

Additionally, if your margined shares pay a dividend but are lent out, you don't actually receive real dividends because you aren't the official holder. Instead, you receive "payments in lieu of dividends," which don't qualify for the 15% dividend tax rate. However, you will only have to pay the high income-tax rate if the firm clearly states that the dividend income was payment in lieu on the Form 1099-Div - if it isn't stated, you will receive the lower 15% rate.

Back to Cash?
If the above doesn't sound too appetizing to you and you're adamant about retaining your vote and want to avoid a potential dividend tax hassle, the easiest solution is to transfer your shares from a margin account to a cash account. Shares held in a cash account can't be lent out, which removes the voting and dividend issues.

However, if you are willing to give up some of the above and take on the additional fees to access the greater capital in a margin account, you will need to ensure that you keep your account in a credit state around important voting times (as the brokerage firm will need to return the borrowed shares).

Share Lending
If you give the brokerage firm permission, shares held in a cash account can also be lent out, which presents a potential source of additional gain. This process is called share lending.

There can be a lot of demand by short sellers and hedge funds to borrow securities, especially on securities that are typically hard to borrow. Similar to a margin account, when you borrow capital or securities, you are required to pay interest on the amount borrowed.

Depending on market rates and the demand for the securities, the exact amount of interest charged for borrowing securities will vary (the harder to borrow, the higher the interest). The most attractive securities to lend are those that are hardest to borrow for short selling, which usually means small caps or thinly traded stocks as well as shares that are already heavily shorted or have fallen in price.

This demand presents an attractive opportunity for investors with the securities in demand. If you have a cash account with securities in demand, you can let your broker know that you are willing to lend out your shares. If there is demand for these shares, your broker will provide you with a quote on what he/she would be willing to pay you for the ability to lend these shares.

If you accept, your broker will lend your shares out to a short seller or hedge fund for a higher rate and pocket the difference, as well as satisfy another customer's demand and generate commissions. For example, your broker may give you 8% interest on the loaned shares while lending out at 13%. Depending on the size of your position, it can be a nice additional source of return. This method also allows you to keep your existing long position in the security and benefit from its upward movement.

Depending on the broker, he/she may or may not provide this service, and may also require a minimum number of shares or dollar amount.

Conclusion
Investors should always be evaluating everything on a risk/reward basis from the stocks they invest in to the accounts they open. Margin accounts can be attractive as you can generate a large return by using a brokerage's capital. However, there is a greater risk of loss, and investors can also lose voting power.

Alternatively, while a cash account may seem boring as there is no leverage, through the practice of lending securities, investors can increase their returns with another source of income.

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Wall Street Analysts’ Top Stocks to Buy Trading Under $10

Whether you are a trader or investor, one of the keys to success is having a meaningful enough position in the stocks you own to take advantage of strong upside price movement. As we have mentioned before, many of the big Wall Street firms do not make a habit of pounding the table on stocks trading for less than $10. They are even more reluctant on stocks trading below $5, as many of those stocks are not marginable.

The good news for our readers is, because of our deep Wall Street coverage, we can scan the firms and come up with some gems that may explode down the road. Just remember, the home builders all traded in single digits after the housing market meltdown five years ago. Many of the top bank stocks also traded to single-digit status when the market imploded in the fall of 2008. The old adage “you can’t judge a book by its cover” can easily apply. Here are more stocks to buy from around Wall Street that are trading at $10 or less.

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Arbor Realty Trust Inc. (ABR) recently increased its cash position with a secondary offering of 6 million shares of stock. The company invests in multifamily and commercial real estate-related bridge loans, junior participating interests in first mortgages, mezzanine loans, preferred and direct equity, discounted mortgage notes and other real estate-related assets, as well as holds investments in mortgage-related securities and real estate property. Arbor Realty Trust is rated as a stock to buy at Deutsche Bank with a $9.50 price target. The Thomson/First Call estimate for the stock is $9.25. Investors are paid a very solid 7.2% divided. The stock closed Friday at $6.88.

BioScrip Inc. (BIOS) provides home infusion, other home care services and pharmacy benefit management (PBM) services in the United States. It operates in three segments: Infusion Services, Home Health Services and PBM Services. Currently six analysts rate BioScrip at Buy, but no analysts rate it at Sell or at Hold. CNBC’s Jim Cramer recently recommended the stock for a trading bounce. Jefferies considers it a stock to buy and has a $13 price target. The consensus target stands at $11, with the high target at $17. BioScrip closed Friday at $8.84.

Cott Corp. (COT) stock has pulled back some 30% from its 52-week high of $11.25 after second-quarter market conditions were presented as "challenging." However, the dividend was reinstated after a ten-year hiatus, and the company bought back $6 million worth of shares in the second quarter. The company mainly does business in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada and Mexico, but it also sells beverage concentrate to 50 other countries. Deutsche Bank rates Cott as a stock to buy and has an $11 price target. The consensus is posted at $10. Investors are paid a decent 2.9% dividend. The Friday close for Cott was $7.87.

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IntraLinks Holdings Inc. (IL) is a leading global software as a service (SaaS) provider of inter-enterprise content management and collaboration solutions. It recently launched Intralinks DealNexus, the largest global deal marketplace and professional network for qualified mergers and acquisitions (M&A) professionals. Intralinks DealNexus offers a secure and confidential way for dealmakers to find and engage the best buyers or capital partners, and it is used by more than 5,000 private equity firms, corporations, investment banks and advisors to intelligently connect and exchange deal opportunities. Wunderlich rates the company a stock to buy and has a $17 price objective. The consensus target is $12.The stock closed on Friday at $8.61.

Model N Inc. (MODN) develops applications, such as managed care and government pricing, for life science companies and channel incentives based on design wins for technology companies. The company's customers use its application suites to manage mission-critical functions, such as pricing, contracting, incentives and rebates. The company had a recent initial public offering (IPO) that traded as high as $24.80 before badly missing earnings and being taken to the woodshed. Deutsche Bank still rates it as a stock to buy and has a $12 price target. The consensus target is at $15. The stock closed Friday at $9.88.

Novavax Inc. (NVAX) is a top stock to buy at Lazard. This clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company uses recombinant nanoparticle technology to develop vaccines for a wide variety of infectious diseases. The company presently has six vaccine candidates undergoing clinical trials, with a seventh (rabies) being readied for a Phase-1 study later this year. The Lazard price target for this stock is a staggering $11, far and away the highest target on Wall Street. A trade to that level would be almost a 300% gain. The consensus estimate is at $4. The stock closed Friday at $3.17.

Nuverra Environmental Solutions Inc. (NES) may be the low-priced leader in our stocks to buy. The company's Shale Solutions segment provides comprehensive environmental solutions for unconventional oil and gas exploration and production, including the delivery, collection, treatment, recycle and disposal of restricted environmental products used in the development of unconventional oil and natural gas fields in the Marcellus/Utica, Eagle Ford, Bakken, Haynesville, Barnett, Permian, Mississippian Lime, and Tuscaloosa Marine Shale areas. Given the huge growth of fracking for oil and gas, this could be an interesting way to play the sector. The Wunderlich price target for the stock is $5, a high on the street, while the consensus is at $3. A move to the Wunderlich target would be a 100% gain for investors. Nuverra closed Friday at $2.34.

Rite Aid Corp. (RAD) recently blew out its numbers and the stock took off. While the company is back to profitability, it still has a large amount of debt. We recently covered the stock in depth as a possible drug store alternative for institutional investors again. Credit Suisse rates the company as a stock to buy and has a $5 price target. The consensus is posted at $4.50. Rite Aid closed Friday at $4.70, following a successful spot stock offering.

Vernaxis Inc. (APPY) is an in vitro diagnostic company focused on obtaining FDA clearance for and commercializing its CE MarkedAPPY1 Test, a rapid, multiple biomarker-based assay for identifying patients that are at low risk for appendicitis. They have moved ahead with their pivotal trial enrollment, and the analyst at Canaccord Genuity rates the company as a stock to buy. Its price target for the stock is a whopping $7, the high target for the stock. A move to that level would represent a 250% move for shareholders. The consensus target is at $5.25. Vernaxis closed Friday at $1.97.

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Broken IPOs, fallen angels and all sorts of special situations show up in the stocks to buy under $10 list. Again, the nice aspect, whether trading or owning these stocks for the long haul, is that investors can take a substantial position. This can go a long way if one of these stocks has a large upswing. We will continue to scan our Wall Street coverage for more top stocks to buy under $10.

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Investing In Healthcare Facilities

The healthcare facility industry includes hospitals, ambulatory surgery centers, long-term care and other facilities such as psychiatric centers. Many of the performance drivers are the same for the group as a whole, although hospitals face some unique challenges â€" they operate in a high fixed-cost environment with profit-loss centers such as emergency rooms that cannot turn away patients and thus rack up bad debt expenses. Surgery centers and long-term care have for-profit business models that have lower fixed costs and negligible bad debt.

Uniqueness of Hospitals

Despite high fixed costs and increasing competition, hospitals have shown steady historical growth in part because of government assistance through legislation. Since most U.S. hospitals are not-for-profit and in rural settings where the hospital may be the only source of medical care for many miles around, the government has an unwritten obligation to ensure they are financially able to operate. Medicare reimbursement rates tend to be high enough to ensure most hospitals stay afloat, creating a downside buffer for publicly traded hospitals.

Therefore, any hospital that can maximize its profits by running efficiently through cost controls and garner market share by offering a better service and product (orthopedics, cardiac services and more renowned doctors) can grow faster than its peers. Over the past decade, hospitals' two-year EBITDA CAGR has been 10%, which is an extremely steady and strong growth over a full economic cycle.

Important Investment Metrics

The stock prices of companies operating healthcare facilities are primarily driven by the Medicare reimbursement level. When Medicare makes changes to its payments, it often impacts profits and share prices to a greater degree than expected, both on the upside and downside. Other drivers include (data quotes are from Bank of America Merrill Lynch's report in April 2013):

  • Volumes or occupancy, which in the long run are tied to population growth plus demographic shifts, but also depend on the competition level. Historically, hospital volumes have shown growth of about 1-2%, but it is now closer to 0-1% because competition (surgery centers and long-term care) are stealing volumes. Some hospitals are now at risk for failing. As a result, the federal government has enacted laws that do not allow new outpatient faciliites to be built so that competition decreases.
  • Pricing that insurance companies pay hospitals for patient services, also called commercial pricing (non-government health insurers), which is based more on market trends than government budgets and is negotiated between each hospital and insurer. Historically, commercial pricing has seen about 5-7% annual growth.
  • Cost growth - the largest components are labor and supply costs, and a hospital’s ability to contain them.
  • Capital deployment in the form of acquisitions. Hospitals are high free cash flow businesses, and they usually go through acquisition cycles by employing their free cash flow plus leverage. Hospitals are not scalable, so investors should look for companies that buy underperforming assets in good locations (positive demographic/population) and where improving operational efficiency can increase margins. Acquisitions tend to be positive for stocks in the long run as margins improve. However, investors should be wary when companies make acquisitions to increase growth because the growth in their current facilities has slowed.
  • Bad debt, which is the amount of uncollectible bills that hospitals write off from uninsured or under-insured patients. This tends to be a negative risk for stocks, because investors perceive bad debt as more negative to profitability than it actually tends to be, resulting in a downside risk to stock prices. Bad debt historically has shown 8-10% growth, but healthcare reform should mitigate it somewhat.

Decision Making

When deciding whether to invest, the following should be considered:

  1. Is the sector attractive? Prior to investing in healthcare facility stocks, investors need to determine if the regulatory environment will be positive. These stocks are subject to a tremendous amount of risk anytime the media reports on Medicare pricing changes - some of which impact a companies’ profits and some that impact from a purely psychological standpoint. For example, on Aug. 15, 2013, Medicare announced a reimbursement rate below expectations - an increase for 2013-14 that will only be 0.7% versus the expected cost increase of 2.5%. Community Health Systems (NYSE:CYH), one of the largest public hospital groups, saw its stock fall 5.9% on the day of and the day following the announcement.
  2. Following a positive sector call, the next step is to determine which type of facility is attractive. Of all the publicly traded healthcare facilities, hospitals have the largest market cap and offer the greatest number of stocks to choose from. The decision may not be an all-or-none choice. For example, if Medicare rates are expected to rise greater than expected, then investing in a hospital and long-term care facility may be prudent. The decision should also be based on expectations for competition levels and the expected regulatory environment (e.g. moratoriums on new builds for ambulatory surgery centers, etc.).
  3. Once the type of facility is chosen, then a deep dive into the individual names is required. Facility location is crucial to occupancy. If a facility is located in an area where population growth is expected to be greater than average due to migratory trends (immigration, baby boomers moving south, etc.), then those facilities should exceed the expected average volume growth of 0-1%. In addition, if the higher volumes are expected to result in more profitable procedures (cardiac or orthopedics), then the profit per volume growth will push EBITDA growth above the average. It is important to also note whether the volume growth will result in higher uninsured patients, potentially causing bad debt to increase above the average 8-10% level, resulting in a negative impact on profits.
  4. Finally, the strength of the management team should be considered. Insight into successful acquisition strategies, ability to contain costs through prudent cost controls and the foresight to build or improve facilities are keys to a successful long-term investment.

Valuation

Determining whether the stock is attractively priced is the final step. Healthcare facilities' stocks are best valued using an enterprise multiple metric. This is the preferred metric because it adjusts for leverage, which can be high during a strong acquisition cycle and for depreciation and amortization, which are impacted by building/real estate. Historically, hospital stocks have traded in an EV/EBITDA range of 5.5-9.0. If using a price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple to compare against other sectors, the historical average P/E for hospital stocks has been 14.1, and in a range of 10-20. Valuation for long-term care and ambulatory surgery centers has been on a stock-by-stock basis since very few public companies are in each subsector. Any stock identified as being an attractive investment and trading below the average or outside the range should be considered a buy.

The Bottom Line

Healthcare facilities can provide attractive investment opportunities. The stock prices in this sector have produced a five-year CAGR of 13.6% compared to the S&P 500 at 10%, according to a report published by Bank of America Merrill Lynch Global Research in April 2013. There are many key drivers, some of which are out of the companies' control. However strong fundamentals, including operating efficiency, should allow taking advantage of the key drivers. Medicare reimbursement is critical, as well as expected and actual volumes, bed occupancy rates and the competition level. EV/EBITDA is the preferred valuation metric and should be used to compare companies to find undervalued opportunities.

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Saturday, September 14, 2013

6 Asset Allocation Strategies That Work

Establishing an appropriate asset mix is a dynamic process, and it plays a key role in determining your portfolio's overall risk and return. As such, your portfolio's asset mix should reflect your goals at any point in time. Here we outline some different strategies of establishing asset allocations and examine their basic management approaches.

Strategic Asset Allocation
This method establishes and adheres to a "base policy mix" - a proportional combination of assets based on expected rates of return for each asset class. For example, if stocks have historically returned 10% per year and bonds have returned 5% per year, a mix of 50% stocks and 50% bonds would be expected to return 7.5% per year.

Constant-Weighting Asset Allocation
Strategic asset allocation generally implies a buy-and-hold strategy, even as the shift in values of assets causes a drift from the initially established policy mix. For this reason, you may choose to adopt a constant-weighting approach to asset allocation. With this approach, you continually rebalance your portfolio. For example, if one asset is declining in value, you would purchase more of that asset; and if that asset value is increasing, you would sell it.

There are no hard-and-fast rules for timing portfolio rebalancing under strategic or constant-weighting asset allocation. However, a common rule of thumb is that the portfolio should be rebalanced to its original mix when any given asset class moves more than 5% from its original value.

Tactical Asset Allocation
Over the long run, a strategic asset allocation strategy may seem relatively rigid. Therefore, you may find it necessary to occasionally engage in short-term, tactical deviations from the mix to capitalize on unusual or exceptional investment opportunities. This flexibility adds a market timing component to the portfolio, allowing you to participate in economic conditions more favorable for one asset class than for others.

Tactical asset allocation can be described as a moderately active strategy, since the overall strategic asset mix is returned to when desired short-term profits are achieved. This strategy demands some discipline, as you must first be able to recognize when short-term opportunities have run their course, and then rebalance the portfolio to the long-term asset position.

Dynamic Asset Allocation
Another active asset allocation strategy is dynamic asset allocation, with which you constantly adjust the mix of assets as markets rise and fall, and as the economy strengthens and weakens. With this strategy you sell assets that are declining and purchase assets that are increasing, making dynamic asset allocation the polar opposite of a constant-weighting strategy. For example, if the stock market is showing weakness, you sell stocks in anticipation of further decreases; and if the market is strong, you purchase stocks in anticipation of continued market gains.

Insured Asset Allocation
With an insured asset allocation strategy, you establish a base portfolio value under which the portfolio should not be allowed to drop. As long as the portfolio achieves a return above its base, you exercise active management to try to increase the portfolio value as much as possible. If, however, the portfolio should ever drop to the base value, you invest in risk-free assets so that the base value becomes fixed. At such time, you would consult with your advisor on re-allocating assets, perhaps even changing your investment strategy entirely.

Insured asset allocation may be suitable for risk-averse investors who desire a certain level of active portfolio management but appreciate the security of establishing a guaranteed floor below which the portfolio is not allowed to decline. For example, an investor who wishes to establish a minimum standard of living during retirement might find an insured asset allocation strategy ideally suited to his or her management goals.

Integrated Asset Allocation
With integrated asset allocation, you consider both your economic expectations and your risk in establishing an asset mix. While all of the above-mentioned strategies take into account expectations for future market returns, not all of the strategies account for investment risk tolerance. Integrated asset allocation, on the other hand, includes aspects of all strategies, accounting not only for expectations but also actual changes in capital markets and your risk tolerance. Integrated asset allocation is a broader asset allocation strategy, albeit allowing only either dynamic or constant-weighting allocation. Obviously, an investor would not wish to implement two strategies that compete with one another.

Conclusion
Asset allocation can be an active process to varying degrees or strictly passive in nature. Whether an investor chooses a precise asset allocation strategy or a combination of different strategies depends on that investor's goals, age, market expectations and risk tolerance.

Keep in mind, however, that this article gives only general guidelines on how investors may use asset allocation as a part of their core strategies. Be aware that allocation approaches that involve anticipating and reacting to market movements require a great deal of expertise and talent in using particular tools for timing these movements. Some would say that accurately timing the market is next to impossible, so make sure your strategy isn't too vulnerable to unforeseeable errors.

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Friday, September 13, 2013

How Big Will the Twitter IPO Be?

After months of speculation, Twitter has indeed filed its IPO papers.

Because so many people use it, the Twitter IPO is likely to be the most anticipated initial public offering since Facebook (FB) debuted in May 2012. The question is: Just how big will Twitter’s IPO be?

It won’t be as large as Facebook’s. That we know. Facebook went public with a valuation of $100 billion. Twitter is valued at an estimated $9 billion, according to private sales of the stock to investment group BlackRock earlier this year.

But Facebook wasn’t worth anywhere near $104 billion at the time of its IPO. Its trailing 12-month earnings were only $1 billion, so the stock opened at a ridiculous 104 times earnings. Unprecedented hype and build-up pumped the IPO price up to a number it couldn’t sustain.

We know what happened next. Facebook shares immediately plummeted, sinking from a $38 IPO price to less than $18 a share within four months. It took more than a year for the stock to fully recover.

Can Twitter avoid a similar fate? The hype machine is already churning. Given that fervor, it will be tempting for the company to price its IPO much higher than it’s actually worth.

Based on 2013 revenue, Twitter is worth about 11% of what Facebook was at the time of its IPO. Facebook’s 2012 revenue was $5.1 billion. Twitter’s estimated 2013 revenue is $582 million.

Sales are growing exponentially, however. Twitter’s advertising revenue is expected to more than double this year, from $288 million in 2012. It’s supposed to rise to $950 million next year, and then $1.33 billion in 2015.

Rising revenues don’t translate to profitability, however. How profitable Twitter is will go a long way toward determining how the stock performs once it goes public.

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UBS Offers Eight Well-Known International Large Cap Dividend Ruler Stocks

With yields on 10-year Treasury bonds up nearly 1.5% since early May and briefly touching 3.0% last week, the impact of higher rates on stocks continues to be top of mind for investors. The analysts at UBS have feel that, while the backup in rates will be problematic for the highest yielding sectors of the market (telecom, utilities and real estate), it is unlikely to have a negative impact on consistent dividend growth stocks. These stocks are the cornerstone of their divided ruler list of stocks to buy.

In fact, the UBS dividend ruler stocks actually have outperformed the other traditional income areas, rising as a whole more than 2% since May, verses a 10% decline for utilities and telecom and a 14% decline for real estate investment trusts (REITs). Here is a list of top international dividend ruler stocks to buy from UBS.

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AstraZeneca PLC's (AZN) longer-term earnings power should be enhanced by its strong presence in emerging markets. Valuations are attractive, relative to peers and history. In addition, the company has a strong pipeline for pharmaceutical and over-the-counter drugs. The Thomson/First Call price target for the stock is $51.50. Investors are paid a strong 5.6% dividend.

British American Tobacco PLC (BTI) is one of the big four global tobacco companies. Three-quarters of its business is in emerging markets. It has market leadership in 60 countries. A defensive sector, powerful brands and strong emerging market presence add up to a convincing investment case, particularly in the tobacco sector where emerging market growth compensates for Western market declines. The consensus price target is $120.50. Investors are paid a 4.0% dividend.

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Total S.A. (TOT) is a France-based, large, integrated oil and gas company. The company's investment in oil and gas exploration should support production growth in 2013 and beyond. The consensus price target for the stock is posted at $59.90. Shareholders are paid a very solid 4.7% dividend.

Unilever PLC (UL) is a huge consumer staples company with a strong and rising exposure to emerging markets (currently more than 40%), and improving performance in its food division should provide ample cash flows to support dividend growth. The consensus price target for this top name is $43.36. Investors receive a good 3.8% dividend.

Novartis A.G. (NVS) is estimated by the UBS team to have the potential for better-than-average industry growth, driven by a robust product pipeline, substantial emerging market exposure and faster-growing non-pharmaceuticals businesses. The consensus target for the stock is at $80, and investors are paid a 3.3% dividend.

Teva Pharmaceuticals Industries Ltd. (TEVA), one of the world's largest generic drug manufacturers, is well positioned to take advantage of the high number and dollar amount of branded drugs going off-patent over the next few years. An increased commitment to capital redeployment, combined with its low valuation, should reward shareholders. The consensus price target for this market leader is $44. Stockholders are paid a 2.6% dividend.

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Pearson PLC (PSO) has a leading position in textbooks. Transition to digital is driving strong revenue gains. Improving state government finances is driving a pickup in growth. The consensus price target for the stock is $21.50. Investors are paid a 3.5% dividend.

Sanofi (SNY) continues to transform its business by expanding its emerging markets capabilities, focusing on innovation and diversifying through licensing and acquisitions. The consensus price target for the stock is posted at $57. Investors are paid a 2.6% dividend.

One thing for investors to remember is that international stocks like the UBS dividend rulers are a solid addition to any portfolio. While emerging markets have looked very scary this year, there will be a huge growth of the middle-class consumer in those countries over the next 20 years. Most of these stocks are very leveraged to that growth and may provide some outstanding upside for patient stockholders.

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A Value Opportunity in Big Oil Stocks?

The run-up in crude oil prices that got rolling in mid-April has pushed West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices from around $87 a barrel to almost $110 a barrel. That is a gain of more than 26% in five months. Stocks of the major integrated oil and gas companies have moved in a range from a decline of about 1% to a gain of about 16% in the same period.

The movement in the price for Brent crude is somewhat different from the rise in the price of WTI. In mid-April, the spot price for Brent crude was around $97 a barrel, and it now stands at about $113 a barrel, a rise of about 16%. That change is much more in line with the best performers among the big oil companies.

The big gainers, both around 16%, are ConocoPhillips (COP) and France’s Total S.A. (TOT). Chevron Corp. (CVX) is up about 3.5%, BP PLC (BP) is up about 1.5% and Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) is down about 1%. Because Brent crude has replaced WTI as the global benchmark, a gain of 16% to match the price hike in Brent crude is about as good as it gets.

Conoco was able to increase second-quarter production by 4% year-over-year, so even though its realized price per barrel was flat with the year-ago price, revenues and profits were up. At Exxon production was down nearly 2%. At Chevron and BP, reported production was down about 1.5%. And at Total, liquids production was down 5% but natural gas production pushed barrels of oil equivalent to a gain of 1% in total hydrocarbons production.

A further influence on crude prices is the so-called fear premium, which reflects traders’ thinking about the impact on prices of events like unrest in Egypt and U.S. military action in Syria. This premium adds mostly volatility to crude prices, and the biggest piece of any gain will go to traders, not producers. The fear premium is helping keep the oil market in backwardation, with current spot prices well below forward prices. Thus, even if a big oil company wanted to hedge future production, that company does not stand to be rewarded by performing hedges.

We have looked at five of the world’s largest oil and gas companies in an effort to spot a value play in among the group. Here is our take.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) closed at $87.98 on Thursday and has a market value of about $387 billion. The consensus target price from Thomson Reuters is around $95.20, and the 52-week range is $84.70 to $95.49. Exxon has a dividend yield of 2.9%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 8.2%, and we note that the target price is slightly below the 52-week high.

Chevron Corp. (CVX) closed at $123.89 last night and has a market value of about $239 billion. The consensus target priceis around $132.50, and the 52-week range is $100.76 to $127.83. Chevron has a dividend yield of 3.3%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 6.9%, and the target price is above the 52-week high.

BP PLC (BP) closed Thursday at $42.10 and has a market value of about $133 billion. The consensus target price is around $48.70 and the 52-week range is $39.58 to $45.45. BP has a dividend yield of 5.2%. The implied upside to the consensus target is 15.7%, and again the target price is above the 52-week high.

ConocoPhillips (COP) closed at $68.78 on Thursday and has a market value of about $84 billion. The consensus price target is around $69.00, and the 52-week range is $53.95 to $69.38. Conoco pays a dividend yield of 4.0%. The stock is essentially fully valued at last night’s closing price.

Total S.A. (TOT) closed at $56.70 last night and has a market value of about $129 billion. The consensus price target on the shares is $58.20, and the 52-week range is $45.93 to $57.07. Total pays a dividend yield of 4.8%. The implied upside on the stock is about 2.6%.

Conoco and Total are at and very close to fully valued, respectively. Of 23 analysts’ recommendations cited at MarketWatch, 11 rate Conoco stock at Buy or Overweight. Out of 29 ratings, 20 list Total either as Buy or Overweight.

BP has its own problems related to the 2010 Macondo well disaster, and its relatively high implied gain could easily evaporate. Of 33 analysts’ recommendations, 20 rate the stock as a Hold. An even higher proportion, 17 out of 24 analysts, rate Exxon as a Hold, while 13 of 23 analysts rate Chevron as either Buy or Overweight.

All these major oil companies, except for Conoco, also own and operate refineries. If crude oil prices rise, their refineries pay more for crude, offsetting some of the gains they might otherwise expect. Conoco is worth keeping an eye on to see if the price target moves. Chevron gets the analysts’ vote as a better bet than Exxon, and that seems like the right call.

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A Day In The Life Of An Auditor

If you like the idea of examining and attesting to a company’s financial performance for a living, a career in auditing might be right for you. To help you decide, we’ve interviewed three auditors to show you what your workdays be like if you enter this profession.

Eric Wolf, Audit Manager, Demetrius Berkower (33 years old)
Audit manager Eric Wolf works for Demetrius Berkower, a regional accounting and consulting firm with offices in New Jersey, Los Angeles and the Cayman Islands. The firm provides accounting and auditing services to clients throughout the United States and has clients whose annual revenues range from several hundred thousand dollars to over $100 million.

Wolf is an audit manager in the firm’s hedge-fund practice, so most of his 30-plus clients are hedge funds and other investment companies. Wolf previously worked at two of the larger accounting firms as an audit supervisor specializing in audits of nonprofit and health-care companies.

Wolf arrives in the office around 9:00 am and begins his day by reviewing email and organizing his priorities based on regulatory and client deadlines. After communicating with his clients to obtain any additional information he needs, he performs audit procedures. He delegates certain tasks to staff to ensure that the work is performed efficiently.

Hedge funds must be audited to comply with Securities and Exchange Commission and other regulations as well as to satisfy investors. The audit report provides an opinion that the fund’s financial statements are presented fairly in all material respects. Wolf learns about the valuation of the fund’s investments and performs tests on them. He also examines the fees the hedge fund manager charges its investors and compares that amount to the amount described in the fund’s organizational documents.

Wolf participates in client meetings to discuss audit and tax work, industry happenings and new accounting standards that are pertinent to the hedge fund industry and specifically to that client. The client updates Wolf and his colleagues on the hedge fund’s performance and other business matters. He also attends internal staff meetings to go over work status and discuss clients’ priorities. He has meetings with managers and partners to streamline internal processes and general documentation and to ensure that their audits are completed efficiently, effectively and on time.

Often, Wolf participates in conference calls with potential hedge fund clients along with Maurice Berkower, the firm’s lead hedge fund partner. They discuss the fund’s structure and trading strategy and ask what services they are looking for. Wolf provides biographies of the firm and of the partner and manager who will be working on the job. They discuss the various aspects of the audit and negotiate pricing.

Wolf says the culture at Demetrius Berkower is very friendly. Getting time off for vacation is no problem as long as he gives ample notice and communicates his work status to his colleagues so they can assist his clients while he is away. Wolf, even when away, typically checks his email and voice mail. He works about 45 hours a week during the non-busy season, but from mid-January through April, he typically works 11-plus hours a day plus weekends. Much of this work overlaps with tax requirements, such as producing the hedge fund’s Schedule K-1 for its investors. Wolf does not prepare tax returns, but he works closely with the tax department.

Wolf particularly likes having the opportunity to work with many companies at the same time and get an overall picture of what they are doing. Even within the same industry, different hedge funds employ different trading strategies and styles. He says that every day offers something new and interesting.

Lindsey Graves, Senior Accountant, EisnerAmper (26 years old)
Lindsey Graves, a Certified Public Accountant, has been with EisnerAmper, an accounting, consulting and tax-services firm, for four years. Graves began as an intern, then took a full-time staff position after graduation. After two years, she was promoted to senior accountant in the firm’s hedge fund group. EisnerAmper works with more than 1,000 hedge funds, private equity funds and other fund entities, as well as nearly 100 broker-dealers serving investment banks and retail brokerages.

If you like auditing but aren’t sure you want to dedicate your days to it exclusively, a career as a CPA will allow you some variety. In addition to working on hedge-fund audits, Graves provides tax accounting, bookkeeping and fund services. “Because I am involved with multiple groups, no two days are exactly the same,” she says.

The first thing Graves does when she comes into the office is check her email and voice mail. As a senior staff member, she is usually the main contact for clients, so when she receives a request from them, she decides if it’s something she can handle herself, should delegate to staff, or should seek a manager’s or partner’s guidance on. She also responds to questions from the staff she supervises and completes requests from the managers and partners she works with.

Graves spends most of her day reviewing work prepared by staff. “This includes audit workpapers and testing procedures, financial statements, tax workpapers and completed returns, and various bookkeeping projects,” she says. “I also spend time answering any questions from the staff while they prepare the work mentioned above,” she adds. She then submits the reviewed work to her manager for another review and helps to finalize the audit or tax return and deliver it to the client. “I also serve as liaison between our team and the client when we have additional questions or items that need clarification,” she says.

Once a week, Graves assists her firm’s fund administration team with investor services. She also reviews check runs twice a month and supervises month-end closing activities for two clients that her firm performs back-office bookkeeping for. “Once the month has been closed, I review GAAP financials prepared by the staff on the engagement and send these to the client and their investors,” she says. The financials are then used for monthly budgeting and regulatory filings. These financials are audited annually, and Graves is the main contact for the auditors, providing any reports or answers they need on the financials.

Graves typically works on about 15 audits and 30 tax returns each year. She says the variety keeps things interesting, because she sees different issues and challenges from each client.

During tax season, Graves works from 7:30 am until 10:00 pm and also comes into the office on Saturdays for about five hours. The rest of the year, she works from 7:30 am until 4:30 pm, which lets her have a personal life. The off-season is a good time for vacation, and Graves is allowed eight weeks of paid time off per year.

Graves says that while her colleagues who are audit seniors spend 80% to 90% of their time on auditing work, she dedicates a third of her time to auditing. Her auditing activities focus on testing existence and valuation for the securities her hedge-fund clients hold. She also tests investor capital activity and related party transactions such as management fees and the performance allocation paid to the general partner. She compares the percentages charged to each investor with those stated in the fund’s agreement to ensure their accuracy. For her SEC-registered hedge-fund clients, she prepares the audited financial statements that the funds must file with the SEC within 120 days of year end. These clients also use their audited financial statements to report to current investors and to inform potential new investors.

Daniel R. Montes, Internal Audit Manager, Large Retailer (36 years old)
Internal audit manager Daniel Montes has spent the last eight years as an auditor or consultant and has held many positions, from associate to manager. He currently works for a large retailer as an internal auditor. Montes says he is like the person who helps you clean up your house before your parents come home. “Before the external auditors come for their annual review, internal audit spends a year testing controls to ensure operating effectiveness,” he says. Internal auditors also have a greater ability than external auditors to perform operational assessments outside of finance, he adds.

Montes arrives at the office at 8:00 am and spends his first hour checking voice mail and email. From 9:00 am to 10:00 am, he meets with the audit director to go over departmental projects and news. He delves into his projects starting at 10:00 am, which typically includes meeting with various departmental personnel to collaborate on solutions to problems and risks identified by management or his department. In a typical day, the projects he works on might include process improvements, internal control identification and testing, reviews of policies and procedures, audit planning, external audit assistance, reviewing work papers, inventory counts, IT audits and, rarely, fraud investigations.

Montes spends a lot of time on operational audits and reviews, which examine how things work and the risks involved in operations. These audits take a month or longer, and the end result is an audit report with recommendations for management’s consideration. This work often requires significant collaboration with various departments and different levels of senior and executive management. “People in audit get such great exposure to the company as a whole,” Montes says. “This combined with face time with management can really help your career prospects.”

After an hour lunch break, Montes spends two hours attending meetings similar to his morning meetings. Then from 3:00 pm to 5:00 pm, Montes digests and documents the information gathered during his meetings. “This is where MS Office skills are critical,” he says. “I spend a lot of time working on process flow, advanced data analytics and writing reports.” From 5:00 pm to 6:30 pm, he wraps up any open items and prepares for the following day.

In weekly meetings that last from half an hour to two hours, he updates his firm’s vice president and director on audit projects, their status, and any issues, risks or new projects. Twice a week, he attends change-control board meetings related to system and process changes for the company’s information technology general controls such as user access, security and operations. Any and all changes made to programs, systems or procedures must be well documented, tested and approved by a board of peers to mitigate risks related to unintended consequences of change, Montes explains. Possible changes might include code changes, hardware and software upgrades, new system implementations and policy and procedure changes.

Quarterly, he prepares presentations to update executive management on change-control audits, which entail verification of development and testing activities, checking for requisite approvals throughout the process, and post-implementation reviews to ensure that all policies and procedures for change management have been adhered to. Once a year, he works with external auditors for his firm’s annual audit. He assists in risk identification and in producing an audit plan.

Montes most enjoys his job’s problem-solving aspect. Identifying risks specific to his company and its different operational areas requires great collaborative and analytical skills, he says. He works an average of 50 hours a week and says his company’s culture is very fast paced and high performing. As a relatively new employee, he gets 2.5 weeks of vacation.

The Bottom Line
Whether you work for one of the Big Four a smaller regional firm or a single company, a career in auditing requires not just a deep understanding of regulations and financials but also the ability to work effectively with others. If you can excel in these areas and have the endurance to get through tax season, a career in auditing might be right for you.

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Twitter IPO Will Be the Most Perfect of All Time

Twitter filed papers for its initial public offering (IPO). The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission allowed the filing to be essentially secret because of rules that apply to companies with revenue of less than $1 billion. Odd, since Twitter probably has nothing to hide. The IPO will go more smoothly than any in history. Twitter, its underwriter Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and either Nasdaq or NYSE need to show the markets that the Facebook Inc. (FB) IPO problems were an anomaly.

Twitter will be the most visible IPO among Web 2.0 companies since the one for Facebook. Twitter is more visible that Groupon Inc. (GRPN), which stumbled because of misstated numbers, and Zynga Inc. (ZNGA), which was considered a subset of Facebook. With a claimed 200 million users, Twitter has become one of the most widely used Internet sites in the world. The financial world's focus will be fixed firmly on Twitter's profit and loss statement, to assess its value, and on its IPO, to see whether investment banks, an exchange and company management can take a company public without a single mistake.

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Nasadaq will try to snag the Twitter listing to reclaim its honor. It was blamed, at least in part, for the breakdown of the Facebook IPO, which cost some investors dearly. The hours just after the listing was supposed to start were chaotic. The chance to trade the stock was nearly two hours late. Then orders were not filled. The stock fell and barely made it back to the IPO price when trading closed. After the debacle, some people blamed Facebook's chief financial officer for pushing too many shares into the market. Others blamed the bankers who were supposed to create a smooth transition in the early going.

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Nasdaq has had other problems since, which have undermined Wall Street's confidence. It seems like every other day the systems that keep trading seamless have fallen apart. Regulators are in the midst of finding the problem. Nasdaq management apologized, as if that mattered.

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NYSE will try to steal the Twitter IPO from Nasdaq, which is the traditional place to list tech IPOs. NYSE will argue to Twitter, its management and bankers that its system is better built than Nasdaq's. What happened to Facebook cannot happen to IPOs on the NYSE. It does have a case, which may be strong enough to turn the heads of Twitter management.

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No matter which exchange gets the listing, and which banks bring Twitter to market, the process will need to be the best one in years. Twitter's IPO is not only a test of the company's value. It is a chance for all parties involved to show Wall Street what a perfectly managed IPO looks like.

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Thursday, September 12, 2013

100 Times Forward Earnings? Get Real, Folks

In analyzing the pros and cons of certain investments, YCharts often finds itself repeating a standard warning: that shares trading at high valuations are particularly vulnerable to hard falls, even if the underlying business remains strong. A couple of unfortunate cases this year help illustrate the phenomena. Consider lululemon athletica (LULU) and Rackspace Hosting (RAX), two stocks in which shareholders found themselves right about the companies’ ability to produce double-digit sales growth, but disappointed in the investments regardless.

LULU Chart

NASDAQ:LULU data by YCharts

Analysts remain confident that both companies will continue to grow at stellar rates this year and next. Consensus estimates call for lululemon revenue to rise 22% in the current fiscal year and 21% the next. Rackspace is expected to add 17% in sales this year and $16% the following year. But both shares experienced 25% drops at points this year on less-than-catastrophic news.

Lululemon shares got hit in March when it was forced to recall one of its popular lines of yoga pants because they were too sheer. The share price took another fall a few months later when it announced quarterly earnings and revenues that beat market forecasts, but added that its CEO was stepping down.

Rackspace, chief competitor to Amazon.com (AMZN) for cloud computing services, got knocked around in May for reporting a 20% first quarter revenue gain instead of the 22% gain analysts expected. The losses deepened when the company admitted that current quarter revenue might come rise as little as 10% over the previous year period when analysts had forecast a 14% gain.

The culprit here was not so much the actual news, but rather the questionable share price valuations before the announcements. Rackspace shares were trading at nearly 100 times forward earnings at the beginning of this year, while lululemon’s forward price to earnings ratio topped 40. Their forward price to sales ratios were hovering around 8.

LULU Forward PE Ratio Chart

LULU Forward PE Ratio data by YCharts

LULU Forward Price / Sales Ratio Chart

LULU Forward Price / Sales Ratio data by YCharts

Numbers like that are very difficult to justify with conventional math. Those levels imply a more general expectation of very high growth, and any perceived disruption to the trend tends to make investors question those expectations.

For the record, there are plenty of investment analysts who believe these shares are still overpriced, despite their continued faith the companies’ growth. Hold recommendations well exceed buys on lululemon shares, and at least one analyst still brands them a sell. Although Rackspace has gained a couple of new buy ratings in recent weeks, its shares still gets more holds and a couple of sell ratings.

Dee Gill, a senior contributing editor at YCharts, is a former foreign correspondent for AP-Dow Jones News in London, where she covered the U.K. equities market and economic indicators. She has written for The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, The Economist and Time magazine. She can be reached at editor@ycharts.com. Read the RIABiz profile of YCharts. You can also request a demonstration of YCharts Platinum.


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Twitter files for IPO; Goldman is lead underwriter

Twitter said in a tweet tonight that it has confidentially submitted a document to the SEC with plans for an initial public offering of stock.

Goldman Sachs (GS) is the lead underwriter, sources told CNBC. Other underwriters are expected to be named when the S-1 filing is made public.

Shares of social media companies like Facebook (FB)and LinkedIn (LNKD)ticked slightly higher in after-hours trading after Twitter disclosed it had filed.

The company did not reveal any additional details, including any information on timing, other than to confirm the tweet is authentic.

Twitter has been valued at around $10 billion. The IPO is likely to be Silicon Valley's most anticipated debut since Facebook went public last year.

(Read more: Twitter files for IPOâ€"and Twitter goes nuts)

The confidential filing was made under the JOBS act, allowing the company to work with regulators on its plans before making them public. The S-1 will have to be made public at least 21 days before the company starts it "roadshow" to convince large investors to participate.

A company has to have less than $1 billion in revenue to file in secret. It is on track to post $583 million in revenue in 2013, according to advertising consultancy eMarketer.

Twitter did not have to disclose they made the filing but chose to do so.

(Read more: Twitter is going public, and its stock ticker symbol is...)

Twitter's revelations comes just days after Facebook shares fully recovered from the plunge they suffered after that company's troubled IPO in May 2012 to reach an all-time high.

As of Thursday's close, Facebook is up 17.8 percent from its $38 offering price.

CEO Mark Zuckerberg, who had said companies should avoid going public for as long as possible, softened this week. "In retrospect, I was too afraid of going public...you have to stay focused on doing the right stuff," he said Wednesday at the TechCrunch Disrupt conference.

 (Read more: Facebook CEO: Going public isn't so bad after all)

Other social media stocks have done even better. LinkedIn has soared to almost $250 a share from its $45 offering price in May 2011.

Yelp is up 325 percent since its March 2012 IPO, although Groupon is down more than 41 percent since it went public in November 2011.

Twitter's IPO, though much smaller than Facebook's, could still generate tens of millions of dollars in fees from the underwriting mandate itself.

Assuming the company sells around 10 percent of its shares, or $1 billion, underwriters could stand to divide a fee pool of $40 million to $50 million, assuming an overall fee cut of 4 percent to 5 percent, according to Freeman & Co.

- By CNBC.com with contributions from Reuters


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When To Short A Stock

Most investors by nature will "go long" when they buy stocks. Few investors naturally will short stocks (or bet on their decline) because they really don't know what to look for. Some investors see the shorting process as somewhat counter-intuitive to the traditional investing process, since many stocks do appreciate over time. That said, there is a lot of money to be made by shorting, and in this article, we'll give you a list of signs that show when a stock might be ripe for a fall.

Technical Trends
Look at a chart of the stock you are thinking about shorting. What is the general trend? Is the stock under accumulation or distribution?

It is not uncommon to see a stock that has been in a downtrend continue to trade in that same pattern for an extended time period. Many traders will use various technical indicators to confirm the move lower, but drawing a simple trendline may be all that is needed to give a trader a better idea of where the investment is headed.

As you can see from the chart below, the declining trend will make it difficult for an investor to gain on a move higher, because the position will need to fight against the major underlying trend, which in this case is downward.


Other technical indicators, such as a moving average, can also be used to predict a downtrend. Many traders will watch for an asset's price to break below a major moving average to suggest a likely decline, because stocks that fall below a major moving average, such as the 200-day moving average, typically continue their descent.

Estimates Ratcheted Down
When a company misses its quarterly earnings estimates, management will usually try to explain to investors what happened in a conference call or a press release. Following this, Wall Street analysts work to compose a report and distribute it to their brokers. This process can often take a great deal of time - sometimes hours or days - which feels like an eternity in Wall Street chronology.

Astute traders will often aim to short a stock somewhere between the actual release and the time it takes the analyst to generate the report. Keep in mind that when the brokers receive these reports, they are likely to be moving their clients out of the stock, or at the very least reducing their positions.

Tax Loss Selling On the Horizon
In the fourth quarter, you will note that companies trading in the lower end of their 52-week trading range will trade even lower. Why is this? It is because individuals and mutual funds want to book some of their losses before year-end to reap the tax benefits. Therefore, these types of stocks may make good candidates for traders seeking to profit from a move lower.

Insider Selling
There are plenty of reasons why an insider might sell his or her stock. This may include buying a home, or simply a desire to book some profits. However, if a number of insiders are selling the stock in large quantities, it may be a wise move to view this as a harbinger of things to come. Keep in mind that execs have extraordinary insight into their companies. Use this information to your advantage and time your short sales accordingly.

Fundamentals Deteriorating
You don't need to find a company that is on the verge of bankruptcy to successfully short its stock. On the contrary, you need to see only a mild deterioration in a company's overall fundamentals for big holders of the stock, such as mutual funds, to get fed up and dump the shares.

Look for companies that have declining gross margins, have recently lowered future earnings guidance, have lost major customers, are getting an inordinate amount of bad press, have seen their cash balances dwindle or have had accounting problems. Put another way, investors need to be aware at all times of the "cockroach theory." That is, where there is one (problem), there is probably a whole bunch more.


Swelling Inventories/Accounts Receivables
This fits in under the topic of deteriorating fundamentals, but it stands to be emphasized because these are two of the most obvious (increasing inventories and accounts receivable) signs that a company is going downhill.

What do these figures tell you?

Increasing inventory figures might not be a bad thing if a company has recently launched a new product and is building up a backlog of that product in anticipation of selling it. However, if a company shows a sizable inventory jump for no reason, it is a sign that it has goods on its books that are stale and might not be salable. These, in turn, will need to be written off and will have an adverse impact on earnings down the line.

Increasing receivables is a bad sign because it indicates that a company isn't being paid by its customers on a timely basis. This will also throw off earnings going forward. If some of these debts ultimately prove to be uncollectible, they will also have to be written off at some point.

Declining Sector Trends
While a company will occasionally buck a larger trend, most companies within a given sector or industry trade in relative parity. That means that supply and demand issues facing one company are likely to impact others at some point down the road. Use this information to your advantage. Make phone calls to a company's suppliers and/or customers. They can confirm whether the company is witnessing the same problems (or opportunities) as other players in the same industry or sector.

Conclusion
Investors need to be aware not only that short selling presents an opportunity to generate tangible gains, but also that signals can alert an investor when a stock is about to take a fall. This knowledge will make you an immeasurably better investor.

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Tech Stocks from Briefing.com

Glu Mobile (GLUU) announced its intention to offer shares of its common stock in an underwritten public offering. Canaccord Genuity is acting as the sole book-running manager for the offering. Co expects to use the net proceeds from the offering for working capital and other general corporate purposes, which may include growing its third-party publishing business, further investment in the GluOn games-as-a- service technology platform and the acquisition of, or investment in, companies, technologies, products or assets that complement Glu's business.

 Qualcomm (QCOM) announced that its Board of Directors has approved, effective immediately, a new $5.0 billion stock repurchase program. This replaces the prior $5.0 billion stock repurchase program announced on March 5, 2013, at which time we had also announced a 40 percent increase in the quarterly cash dividend. Since July 24, 2013, the Company repurchased ~40.1 million shares of common stock for ~$2.7 billion. The new stock repurchase program has no expiration date.

 Pandora Media ( P) announced that its Board of Directors has appointed Brian McAndrews, formerly of Madrona Venture Group, Microsoft and aQuantive, to succeed Joe Kennedy as Chief Executive Officer, President and Chairman, effective immediately. In addition to his work at Madrona, McAndrews currently serves on the boards of The New York Times Co., Grubhub Seamless and AppNexus. Today's announcement concludes a transition process that began when Kennedy announced his decision to retire in March 2013.

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Hilton IPO Aims for Record Payday

Finally â€" some news about Hilton that doesn’t involve Paris (the person, not the city).

Hilton Worldwide, the global hotel chain with a portfolio of more than 4,000 hotels, is going public. The Hilton IPO was filed with the SEC today, with the goal of raising up to $1.25 billion in its initial offering. Should that happen, it would make the Hilton IPO the largest initial public offering by a lodging company â€" surpassing the $1.09 billion raised by Hyatt Hotels (NYSE:H) in 2009.

For Hilton, the IPO filing is merely a return to the norm. The company used to be public until Blackstone Group bought it out and took it private in 2007. Blackstone paid $26 billion for Hilton in one of the largest-ever debt-fueled takeovers. At the time, Hilton hotels were struggling to attract customers as the financial crisis was getting underway.

Under Blackstone’s management, Hilton’s balance sheet has improved. Through the first six months of 2013, Hilton’s profits increased 66% from a year ago, while its revenue rose 2.7%.

Still, the hotel giant remains saddled with debt. In its SEC filing, Hilton indicated that it intends to use some of its IPO proceeds to pay down debt. According to the filing, the company plans to refinance about $13.5 billion in debt.

As the global economy has recovered, customers have come back to Hilton â€" a high-end hotel conglomerate that also owns the Waldorf Astoria and Conrad hotel franchises. Occupancy and room rates have also improved in recent years.

Like much of the housing market and U.S. stocks in general, hotel stocks are thriving this year. Hyatt Hotels shares have risen 19% in 2013. Marriott International (MAR) is up more than 15% year-to-date. Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) is up nearly 17%.

The Hilton IPO also comes at a time when initial public offerings are red-hot. One hundred thirty-one companies have gone public on U.S. exchanges this year â€" up 44% from this time a year ago. The average IPO has returned 32% from its offer price in 2013.

So Hilton is jumping in while the IPO waters are quite warm.

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Hilton IPO Aims for Record Payday

Finally â€" some news about Hilton that doesn’t involve Paris (the person, not the city).

Hilton Worldwide, the global hotel chain with a portfolio of more than 4,000 hotels, is going public. The Hilton IPO was filed with the SEC today, with the goal of raising up to $1.25 billion in its initial offering. Should that happen, it would make the Hilton IPO the largest initial public offering by a lodging company â€" surpassing the $1.09 billion raised by Hyatt Hotels (NYSE:H) in 2009.

For Hilton, the IPO filing is merely a return to the norm. The company used to be public until Blackstone Group bought it out and took it private in 2007. Blackstone paid $26 billion for Hilton in one of the largest-ever debt-fueled takeovers. At the time, Hilton hotels were struggling to attract customers as the financial crisis was getting underway.

Under Blackstone’s management, Hilton’s balance sheet has improved. Through the first six months of 2013, Hilton’s profits increased 66% from a year ago, while its revenue rose 2.7%.

Still, the hotel giant remains saddled with debt. In its SEC filing, Hilton indicated that it intends to use some of its IPO proceeds to pay down debt. According to the filing, the company plans to refinance about $13.5 billion in debt.

As the global economy has recovered, customers have come back to Hilton â€" a high-end hotel conglomerate that also owns the Waldorf Astoria and Conrad hotel franchises. Occupancy and room rates have also improved in recent years.

Like much of the housing market and U.S. stocks in general, hotel stocks are thriving this year. Hyatt Hotels shares have risen 19% in 2013. Marriott International (MAR) is up more than 15% year-to-date. Wyndham Worldwide (WYN) is up nearly 17%.

The Hilton IPO also comes at a time when initial public offerings are red-hot. One hundred thirty-one companies have gone public on U.S. exchanges this year â€" up 44% from this time a year ago. The average IPO has returned 32% from its offer price in 2013.

So Hilton is jumping in while the IPO waters are quite warm.

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Twice As Nice: Small Cap and Dividend Growth

While the long-term case for dividends - especially dividend growth - as a driver of stock returns firmly appreciated these days, Horan Capital Advisors points out that year to date it’s the non-dividend payers that have outperformed their income counterparts in the index. On a equal weighted basis, non-dividend payers including Google (GOOG), Berkshire Hathaway (BRK-B), Amazon (AMZN) and DirecTV (DTV) had a year to date total return of 24% through August, compared to 17.9% for the dividend payers. Over the past year, the income holdouts are up an average of 30.7% compared to 24% for the dividend payers.

Horan explains that this is being driven by the fact that smaller caps within the index are outperforming, and smaller cap stocks tend not to focus on dividend payouts. Granted, smaller within the context of the S&P 500 is relative, given the smallest, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) has a market cap of $2.7 billion, and Google at $295 billion is anything but a small cap.

But indeed, while the average market cap for the S&P 500 is more than $62 billion, 64 of the 82 non-dividend payers in the index have a market cap of less than $20 billion, including Netflix (NFLX), Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR) and DaVita Healthcare (DVA). (A quick shortcut to isolate the non-dividend payers in the S&P 500: Use the Screener to zero in on the S&P 500 stocks by choosing “intersect” and then choose S&P 500 under the Index option in the drop down menu. Then move the dividend yield slider to 0%.)

Indeed, bona fide small caps, not just the smaller fry in the S&P 500 have been outperforming lately:

^SLEW Chart

^SLEW data by YCharts

WisdomTree recently launched an ETF that aims to have the best of both worlds: the long-term growth potential that comes from the small cap universe, overlaid with the proven upside of focusing on stocks that are committed to a growing dividend payout. Given the growth mandate for the portfolio, the WisdomTree Small Cap Dividend ETF (DGRS) leans toward more cyclical sectors (consumer cyclical, info tech, industrials) than defensives such as utilities and consumer staples.

Industrials and consumer cyclicals each account for about 25% of fund assets, followed by 13% allocations to technology and the materials sector. The five largest holdings are Questcor Pharmaceuticals (QCOR), Adtran (ADTN), Con-way (CNW), Evercore Partners (EVR) and Meredith Corp. (MDP).

WisdomTree is focused on forward-looking dividend growth potential, not a rear-view screen of past dividend performance. That explains why only Evercore and Meredith have strong back-stories on dividend growth:

QCOR Dividend Chart

QCOR Dividend data by YCharts

WisdomTree starts with its own proprietary index of about nearly 700 small cap stocks and removes the 300 largest from that group. Of the remaining 400 or so stocks, this ETF focuses on the smallest market caps among stocks that currently pay a dividend. A company must have dividend coverage ratio of at least 1. That’s where the dividend criteria ends. From there it’s all about earnings potential and qualityâ€"as measured by the three year average Return on Equity and Return on Assets.

Con-way, which traffics in freight transport and shipping logistics, has the highest dividend coverage ratio of the top 5, at more than 4x. But while there’s certainly potential for dividend growth, this is clearly a stock where you have to be firmly focused on ability, not history, as the dividend has held steady for the past five years.

Media company Meredith has a more conventional story. A dividend cover ratio above 1.7 gives room for the company to keep building on growing its dividend; over the past five years the payout has increased more than 80%. Meredith has also recovered from a steep drop-off in ROA, ROE and per-share EBITDA:

MDP Return on Assets Chart

MDP Return on Assets data by YCharts

Carla Fried, a senior contributing editor at ycharts.com, has covered investing for more than 25 years. Her work appears in The New York Times, Bloomberg.com and Money Magazine. She can be reached at editor@ycharts.com. Read the RIABiz profile of YCharts. You can also request a demonstration of YCharts Platinum.


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